The calls we make on what happens next on the corridor — published in advance and scored openly when they resolve. A track record you can check, not just claims.

• The Zambia–Lobito rail EPC contractor is selected by the end of Q3 2026.

  PENDING

  AFC and reporting put contractor selection in the July–August 2026 window after the May bid deadline; slippage of a quarter is plausible but selection within Q3 is the base case.

  Called 14 June 2026· resolves by 30 September 2026· 60% confidenceZambia–Lobito rail extension

• The DRC launches its Tenke–Kolwezi–Dilolo rehabilitation tender during 2026.

  PENDING

  The Transport Ministry announced an international tender targeted for April 2026 with construction from Q4; even with delay, a 2026 launch is likely.

  Called 14 June 2026· resolves by 31 December 2026· 65% confidenceDRC rail rehabilitation (Tenke–Kolwezi–Dilolo)

• Kamoa-Kakula does not exceed 240,000 tonnes railed via the Lobito corridor in calendar 2026.

  PENDING

  240kt is the stated 2026 target but reserved capacity ramps from a low base and the line is still under rehabilitation; missing the top of the range is the base case.

  Called 14 June 2026· resolves by 28 February 2027· 55% confidenceKamoa-Kakula Copper Complex